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Course aims The course presents an introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis, thus illustrating the necessary steps for the calculation of risk indexes. A practical approach to frequency calculation and consequence assessment, including vulnerability models, will be discussed. A specific focus on domino effect and accidents triggered by Natural-Technological (Na-Tech) events will be presented. |
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Course outcomes The goal of the course is to give an introduction to Quantitative Risk Assessment and to introduce the participants to the analysis of risks originated outside the process boundary, i.e. due to external events, or more specifically: domino effects and Na-Tech accidents due to earthquakes, flooding, lightning. The participants will be introduced to the more accepted methodologies for chemical process risk analysis, with particular emphasis to the recent advancement on consequence analysis. A focus on the methods for the evaluation of domino effects will be presented, exemplifying the assessment of complex industrial layouts. |
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Course content Theory classes 1. Basic definitions 2. Risk indexes 3. Risk tolerability 4. Acceptability criteria 5. Selecting scenarios for risk calculation 6. Frequency and consequence assessment 7. Overview of risk calculation 8. Introduction to vulnerability models 9. Quantitative assessment of domino effect: introduction 10. Methods for evaluation of domino effects 11. Analysis of domino effect in complex industrial layouts 12. Assessment of industrial risk induced by natural events (Na-Tech) 13. Quantitative assessment in varying industrial contexts 14. Use of quantitative risk assessment results 15. Final exam Practice classes 1. Examples of basic definitions in use 2. Risk index examples 3. Applying concepts of risk tolerability 4. Scenario assessment and analysis 5. Frequency calculation 6. Simplified examples of risk calculation 7. Examples of assessing domino effect in quantitative assessment 8. Simplified examples of risk calculation as related to domino effect 9. Example of Na-Tech accident assessment: Earthquake 10. Example of Na-Tech accident assessment: Flooding 11. Example of Na-Tech accident assessment: Lightning 12. Example of Na-Tech analysis methodologies for the EU project iNTeg-Risk 13. Case study: Simplified assessment of an Oil&Gas installation 14. Example of domino effect and Na-Tech implementation in risk assessment 15. Preparation for final exam |
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Literature 1. Textbook: CCPS AIChe series on risk assessment (QRA, Consequence Analysis) 2. Transparencies to accompany each course unit. 3. Council Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major-accident hazards 4. Directive 2003/105/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2003 amending Council Directive 96/82/EC. |
